About the goof
Life is 4 a Goof — sports analytics without the guru act.
What started as a bold bet is a small public board: the live slate, team history, and a unit ledger next to win%. We publish the number you can check. We do not publish the blend.
The slate
Games On Tap is tonight’s card — matchup, moneyline, spread, total, and model win / cover / over-under %. Unplayed games have no result, so they have no units. A historical team ROI on a GOT card is not a pick. We will not put one there.
History
Team Trends and the team drawer are the ledger. Leaders is a curated top/bottom of the same history, not a full roster.
| Surface | Win% | Units | $ |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOT / Top Games | model % only | no | no |
| Team Trends | yes | yes | optional |
| Team drawer | yes | yes | optional |
| Leaders | yes | not default sort | no |
Win% is not the bet
A −150 favorite is supposed to win often and can still lose units. Win% stays on the card. Units sit next to it. Never instead of it.
How units are scored
- One unit a side, at the closing price we stored.
- Moneyline: American close. A favorite win pays
100/|price|; a dog win paysprice/100. A loss is −1. A push is 0. - ATS: −110 until we store juice. We do not invent a second juice.
- OTB / missing close: not scored. If a final game has no close, that is a data bug, not a skip we hide.
- ROI = units / n at read time. We do not store a percent.
Toggle $100/u on Trends or the drawer if you want dollars. Same ledger. Default stays units.
Buckets
Win% on Trends and Leaders is all buckets in the window. The drawer can show Exact / All / ML pick’em for this spot. Exact-bucket leaderboards are later. Those two sentences can disagree; the footnote says so.
Windows and sample
| Board | Window | Floor |
|---|---|---|
| Leaders win% | last three seasons on the public mats (NFL 2023–2025 now) | NFL / MLB / NHL / NBA 20; NCAAF / NCAAB 12 |
| Team units | up to four seasons, floor 2023 | scored decisions only |
| MLB 2026 | YTD finals belong | NFL 2026 empty until the season has results |
What we do not publish yet
- How On Tap blends the model.
- A stake picker (one unit is $100 when you flip the toggle).
- Live in-game odds. Native apps. A units sort on Leaders.
Bet the number you can explain. Laugh at the rest. Betting responsibly is still a good idea.
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